LANSING, Mich. — For months, we’ve been hearing about a "red wave," where Republicans across the country and here at home in Michigan will win their elections easily and unseat Democrats in November, but one expert I talked to explained that red wave is looking pretty purple.
“Elections do tend to go in partisan waves. That is one side tends to gain in each election cycle. And the long running pattern is that the midterm election tends to go against the party of the president," said Professor Matt Grossmann, the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State.
Think of politics like a pendulum swinging from left to right. In presidential terms, in 2016, it swung from the left with President Barack Obama to the right with President Donald Trump then back again when President Joe Biden was elected four years later.
“In particular, the first midterm of a new president is usually associated with losses for that party's president," Grossmann said.
Which basically means, we tend to see more elected officials from the opposing party winning elections in the midterms, and that happens at the state level too. If a governor is performing really well, people running in lower races might receive a little bump for being in the same political party. But that’s not always the case, and this year is looking a little different.
“The biggest one is that the abortion decision by the Supreme Court is the largest policy change from the last two years. So if you believe that midterms are reaction against the policy of the incumbent party, then a normal factor that would help the out of the out of power party is actually hurting them," he said.
Grossmann said other factors like the high rates of inflation and even crime are important factors influencing that pendulum. Here in Michigan, the issue of abortion has been deeply important and is no doubt influencing the race. Gov. Whitmer has been a staunch supporter of abortion rights and Tudor Dixon, her Republican opponent, has been vocally anti-abortion with no exceptions.
“It's very clear that Tudor Dixon has been outspent, and Republicans have been outspent in this election," said Michigan Republican Party Spokesman Gus Portela. "We're still very confident we'll be able to get what we need at the end of the day and ensure that Republicans win.”
A poll conducted by The Detroit News and WDIV-TVshows Whitmer with a 17 point lead over Dixon with just five weeks before the election. But trends are made to be bucked, and one thing is for sure.
“It’s looking more purplish than it was last year," Grossmann said.
“Look, you know, no race is expected to be easy in Michigan. It's a purple state, after all," said Portela.
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