LANSING, Mich. — Another year, another Halloween with cruddy weather in Michigan. It might be hard to believe wet snow flakes could be coming down so soon after we experienced some 80s, but it's true.
In Lansing, there have only been a handful of dry Halloween's since the year 2000. Most recently, 2020 was dry. Not exactly the best year for being out in groups though. Before that, we had a dry Halloween in 2016, and before that, 2010. In total, October 31st has produced snow three years, rain 15 years, with only eight years being dry since the year 2000.
This year it appears we'll add another rain and snow to the tally.
As a parade of storm systems moves by to our north, we will perpetually be on the warmer side of the systems. Until the last one that is. The final storm system will bring a cold front that drops us into the 50s. A powerful Canadian high pressure system will move in to our west after that. Since being on the east side of a high pressure means a northerly wind. We'll open the flood gates for extremely cold air to pour into the Great Lakes from Canada.
The Great Lakes are averaging two to six degrees above normal for the end of October. Some water temperatures are still near 60 degrees! When you bring air temperatures in the 30s over those warm waters you kick the lake effect machine into high gear. At first we'll see bands of rain develop. As the air gets colder and colder from late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday, the rain will likely mix in with some snow.
The white line in the image below is the 32 degree line. Only the lake shore areas will remain above 32 degrees thanks to the warm waters.
As surface temperatures are in the 30s, and sometimes above 32 degrees, it might seem odd that snow could fall. Higher up in the atmosphere it is much colder. Air temperatures up there could be as cold as 15 degrees! Snow falling from those temperatures won't have time to melt when surface temperatures are barely above freezing before hitting the ground.
There is no need to panic about road conditions or snow accumulation, though. The ground temperature is only expected to cool into the middle 40s as this happens. Meaning, if you dig a hole the dirt will still be very warm. This will cause snow to melt on everything except perhaps your car, grass, elevated surfaced like lawn furniture, or your Halloween decorations. Our average first snow is usually early November with our first inch of snow averaging in late November in Lansing.
My bigger concern will be temperatures in the upper 30s with wind speeds at 10-15mph. This will cause wind chill values in the middle 20s for the kiddos trying to trick-or-treat.
As of now a trace at best is expected. We'll watch this situation closely as Halloween nears!
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