LANSING, Mich. — In this article, I'll explain winter forecasting and how we do it and what our limitations are as meteorologists. Hopefully, this will help clear up any confusion you might have based on snow maps that float around social media.
For starters, I'm writing this because of a sudden blast of snow maps and "It's possible!" posts going around rather suddenly on various social media channels. Your best bet is to follow real meteorologists with names and faces. Face-less accounts, like on dating apps, are usually not good news and provide a false set of information to lure you in. You know I'm right.
When meteorologists forecast a winter storm, information become infinitely more available the closer the system actually gets to hitting an area. When the storm system is too far away in the future, there is very little we know about it. A weather model takes initial information, makes assumptions over what will impact the system over the next several days, and plots a single possibility for how the storm will impact an area. What if the information it assumes is wrong? What if it missed something that influences the storm along the way? This happens a lot! There is no skill in posting a snow map 7 days out when the storm system is still on another continent.
Generally, 7-10 days out is when we start asking if what the model is showing is even possible. Is the model hinting at a storm more than once? Or was it just a bad run?
5-7 days out we will start noticing some consistency in models. Is this storm becoming more or less likely? What other large scale systems could impact it?
3-5 days out we will start to notice a pattern in the models, noticing shifts in tracks, precip types, and get a better idea of what may happen and what the unknowns still are.
1-3 days out is the fun part! This is when we buckle down and look at all the little things in all the models to make an initial snow map or forecast. We are nailing down timing, locations impacted, snow totals, and impacts. We will communicate what is still uncertain.
The day of is the day to get your final information update from meteorologists. Sometimes a very small shift of 20 miles or so can make a big difference. This doesn't mean we are wrong, though. A 20 mile shift on a storm scale of 100s if not 1000 miles is a pretty small wobble. Watch us and take in all of our hard work!
In regards to the potential system the weekend of December 10th, 2023, there is still too much unknown. We are 7 days out and getting ready to enter the 5-7 day window. The storm track is shifting all over the place, the rain / snow line is to be determined, ground temperatures, and strength / track of the low pressure.
Social media can be a great place to get information if you follow credible sources. There are a lot of people out there addicted to likes and clicks - they will post anything to get them. Follow actual meteorologists or agencies like the National Weather Service. Be very weary of profiles or pages with no person, name, or photo attached to it. It's very easy to be "Wrong" and deal with fallout when you don't show your face.
No, we can't be wrong all the time and keep our jobs. Big enough errors, hype, and inability to follow through will cause us to lose our jobs just like everyone else.
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