Vice President Kamala Harris now leads former President Donald Trump in five out of seven major battleground states, according to new polling from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey.
The poll now shows Harris ahead of Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll shows that Trump is ahead in Nevada and the two candidates are tied in Georgia. Third-party candidates did not play much of a factor in the polling.
Cook Political Report's polling stood in stark contrast to its May 2024 survey, months before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. The polls had Trump leading in six of the seven states, with Biden and Trump tied in Wisconsin.
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In a head-to-head matchup, Trump led Biden by five percentage points in battleground states in May. Now, Harris holds a two-point edge in battleground states in a head-to-head race.
Trump still has more trust to handle economy, immigration
Despite now trailing in many battleground states, voters surveyed said they trust Trump more than Harris to handle several important issues, including the economy, crime and immigration. Trump has a 14-point lead in who would best handle the border, and a six-point edge in who would better handle the economy.
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Harris most trusted on abortion issue
While immigration is a winning issue for Trump, abortion is a winning issue for Harris. She has a 19-point lead in who would best handle abortion policy.
National polls do not have clear leader
Although Harris is performing better in national polls against Trump than President Biden did, it's still unclear who would win the popular vote if the election were held today.
A head-to-head poll between Harris and Trump released by Fox News on Wednesday showed Trump ahead 50-49. But a YouGov poll showed Harris ahead by two percentage points.
Even a slight edge for Harris in the popular vote might not be enough to get her elected. In two of the last six presidential elections, Democrats have led in the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote.
“Despite his bad month, Trump can still win this election if he defines Harris as too liberal, too inexperienced, and a continuation of Biden on inflation, the cost-of-living, and immigration,” Greg Strimple, resident of GS Strategy Group, said in the survey. “But he must display message discipline and a willingness to abandon the bombast to be successful.”
