LANSING, Mich. — Clouds will begin to build in advance of our next storm system this evening, but dry conditions will hang on until around midnight. That's when spotty snow showers will begin to break out with surface temperatures hovering in the mid 30s. Snow showers will continue on and off overnight, mixing with some rain or sleet near daybreak. While brief, this could create some slick conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Lows will wind up right around the freezing mark.
Wednesday brings an evolving slate of conditions and the potential for our next round of severe weather. Leftover mixed precipitation will quickly give way to widespread, heavy rain by mid-morning. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible with this initial round of rain, and some small hail could occur due to shallow cold air aloft, but no severe weather expected early in the day. Stay alert for localized flooding, due to lingering saturated ground from Sunday's storms.
Rain will taper off to spotty showers by lunchtime, and we will hold in that pattern through early-evening. The afternoon hours will be critical to our severe weather potential, as some make-or-break factors could come into play. The morning rain will use up some of the available energy in the atmosphere over our neighborhoods, meaning the magnitude of severe weather we see later in the day will be dependent on whether the atmosphere can recharge.
Expectations for now are that some warming will occur ahead of and behind a warm front during the afternoon and evening. That alone will help to re-energize the atmosphere, with any breaks of sunshine furthering the cause. At the very least, hit or miss showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist throughout Wednesday afternoon, preceding the main wave of strong to severe thunderstorms between 8:00 PM and midnight.
Conditions are expected to be favorable for widespread damaging winds and large hail, along with a few tornadoes. Torrential rain and frequent lightning are also likely as the storms come through. Given the later timing of the severe weather, make sure you have a way to receive warnings while you are asleep. Also, bear in mind that the severe weather timeframe could expand earlier if conditions turn favorable sooner.
It ultimately all comes down to timing on this event. The ingredients for severe weather will be present in the form of strong mid-level winds, high wind shear, and a strong area of low pressure tracking toward the Great Lakes. If we are able to re-energize the atmosphere after the morning rain, things will turn vary dangerous in the evening. If clouds hold firm in the afternoon, and we fail to warm up enough, evening storms could ultimately be less intense. Be prepared for the worst, but we'll hope for the best.
Sunshine returns on Thursday with breezy conditions in the wake of this storm system. Highs will hang on to the middle and upper 50s, with showers set to return late Friday and Saturday.
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