LANSING, Mich. — We continue to track a winter storm, expected to bring the greatest travel impacts by Thursday evening. In addition to rain and snow, warmer temperatures are also likely to generate flooding concerns.
Rainfall totals from our forecast model are below. We expect steady to moderate rain through the evening hours totaling between a half inch and one inch. Coupled with temperatures near 50 today, this rain will melt much of the snow and create potential flooding issues. We may also see ice jams, especially along the Grand River basin.
Rain showers are expected to persist into Wednesday night, before transitioning over to light freezing rain/drizzle, then eventually light snow showers (1" or less) before daybreak Thursday. Our forecast models show snow likely on Thursday afternoon and evening, as a low pressure system rides up along a cold front over southern Ohio. The amount of snow that accumulates on Thursday will be directly related to the track of the storm and how quickly cold air settles into the region.
The heaviest snow accumulation is likely south of I-94, where Winter Storm Warnings are currently posted. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Hillsdale, Jackson, and St. Joseph counties from 6 a.m. Thursday through 1 a.m. Friday. This is where 4" to 6" of snow is expected, with isolated higher amounts possible.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6 a.m. Thursday through 1 a.m. Friday for Barry, Eaton, Van Buren, and Kalamazoo counties. Snow accumulation between 2" to 4" is expected, with isolated higher amounts possible.
Slick travel is possible for Thursday morning, as precipitation transitions from rain to snow. Freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and light sleet are possible for a brief time on Thursday morning. We expect the heaviest snow to occur Thursday afternoon and evening, with the largest impacts for the evening drive time. See model image for 3 P.M. Thursday below.
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